JAMA Netw Open

The element of surprise: How unpredictable days may increase migraine risk

November 27, 2025

In a cohort study of 109 adults with migraine, researchers tested whether “surprisal”—a measure of how atypical a day’s exposures are—predicts headache onset. Participants logged potential behavioral, emotional, and environmental triggers twice daily for up to 28 days. Higher surprisal scores were significantly associated with increased odds of a headache within 12 hours and 24 hours. Adjusted models showed attenuated but persistent associations. Substantial between-person variability suggests potential for personalized forecasting.

Clinical takeaway: Assessing overall unpredictability in daily experiences—not just isolated triggers—may help inform individualized migraine management strategies.

Source:

Turner DP, et al. (2025, November 3). JAMA Netw Open. Information-Theoretic Trigger Surprisal and Future Headache Activity. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41217751/