JAMA

Declining vaccination rates threaten resurgence of eradicated diseases

April 28, 2025

Study details: The study used computer modeling to project the reemergence of measles, rubella, polio, and diphtheria in the U.S. under various vaccination scenarios. Researchers analyzed current vaccination rates and simulated outcomes if these rates decline further.

Results: Under current vaccination rates, measles could become endemic within 21 years, resulting in approximately 851,000 cases over 25 years. A 50% decline in vaccination rates could lead to over 51 million measles cases, 9.9 million rubella cases, and 4.3 million polio cases, with more than 159,000 deaths. Under this scenario, measles would become endemic in just 5 years, rubella in 18 years, and polio in about 56% of simulations within 20 years, with significant variation across the U.S. population.

Clinical impact: The findings underscore the critical importance of maintaining high vaccination rates to prevent the resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases. Physicians should advocate for vaccination and address vaccine hesitancy to protect public health and prevent significant morbidity and mortality.

Source:

Kiang MV, et al. (2025, April 24). JAMA. Modeling Reemergence of Vaccine-Eliminated Infectious Diseases Under Declining Vaccination in the US. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40272967/