Lancet

Obesity rates expected to soar by 2050 without major interventions

November 22, 2024

More than 250 million people living in the U.S. will have overweight or obesity by 2050 if the current pattern continues, a new study finds. In most states, a projected 33% of adolescents and 66% of adults will have obesity by 2050. Although southern states, such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky, are forecast to continue to have a high prevalence of obesity, the highest percentage changes from 2021 are projected in states such as Utah for adolescents and Colorado for adults.

Researchers analyzed data from 134 sources, including national surveillance surveys, to estimate the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021. They also projected future trends up to 2050 for children, adolescents, and adults at both national and state levels.

Key findings

• Obesity prevalence has increased significantly, especially among adolescents, with a 158.4% increase in males and 185.9% in females from 1990 to 2021.
• In 2021, 15.1 million children, 21.4 million older adolescents, and 172 million adults in the U.S. had overweight or obesity.
• By 2050, an additional 3.33 million children, 3.41 million older adolescents, and 41.4 million adults are projected to have overweight or obesity.

Source:

GBD 2021 US Obesity Forecasting Collaborators. (2024, November 12). Lancet. National-level and state-level prevalence of overweight and obesity among children, adolescents, and adults in the USA, 1990-2021, and forecasts up to 2050. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39551059/