JAMA

U.S. adult obesity rate expected to approach 50% by 2035

January 29, 2026

A new JAMA analysis estimates that 42.5% of U.S. adults—107 million people—were living with obesity in 2022, more than doubling since 1990. Using national survey data and spatiotemporal modeling, researchers project prevalence will reach nearly 47% by 2035. Rates varied widely by state and across racial and ethnic groups. In 2022, obesity ranged from 40% among non-Hispanic White men to 57% among non-Hispanic Black women, with highest state-level burdens in the Midwest and South. Disparities were more pronounced among women, and prevalence rose sharply in younger adults.

Clinical takeaway: Obesity is projected to keep rising across all demographic groups, underscoring the need for targeted, community-specific prevention and treatment strategies.

Source:

DeCleene NK, et al. (2026, January 28). JAMA. US State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity by Race and Ethnicity From 1990 to 2022 and Forecasted to 2035. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41604179/